Tacit Thought
Literally or Seriously?
November, 2024
In 1650, during the English Civil War, Oliver Cromwell wrote to the Scottish Kirk with the plea, “I beseech you in the bowels of Christ, consider that you may be mistaken.” The re-election of Donald Trump to the US Presidency is gravely consequential, but outside of the US Midwest, it has been greeted with a […]
Conflicting agendas
November, 2024
The election of Donald Trump as the next US President has refocused attention on the Ukraine war over the past month. News flow has focused on what Trump might mean by ‘doing a deal in one day’ to end the war. We at Tacit have no special insight into what President Trump will attempt to […]
What are tariffs and are they good or bad?
November, 2024
The word tariff (the most beautiful word in the dictionary according to the US President Elect) relates to a tax or duty imposed by a government on imported or exported goods. They are typically used to regulate trade, protect domestic industries, and generate government revenue. Tariffs can either increase the price of foreign goods, making […]
A result rather than uncertainty
November, 2024
The US elections were the last major election of 2024 and therefore we are now moving into a period of less political uncertainty and less political risk for investment markets to deal with. The immediate market reaction was pretty much as expected: US$ up, US bond yields up, US equities up, Asian equities (China mainly) […]
Whatever your politics, the budget in the UK this week matters.
November, 2024
As investors, our primary focus is on what the chancellor Rachel reeves is trying to achieve and most importantly whether she can deliver on the plan. Firstly some context. The UK economy, as shown in the chart below, has grown at a very slow rate over the past decade. This is well below the historic […]
The long term is difficult to predict
October, 2024
This week Goldman Sachs published some research which concluded that they expect US equity returns to be lower than the rest of the world over the coming decade. This would be a reversal of the past decade which has seen US equities outperform almost all other markets by a substantial margin. The basic rationale for […]
A timely reminder that a good company is not always a good investment
October, 2024
Artificial intelligence and technology companies are all the rage at present. General perception is that the share price of any business that is involved in supplying or providing services in the artificial intelligence sector will have gone up over the last few years. This lazy view is actually not correct. This week, investors were reminded […]
Travels with a Donkey
October, 2024
Whilst most investors and market participants are focussed on the forthcoming US Presidential election, a recent visit to Morocco prompted us to think about “Frontier” markets. Investors have often been drawn to the exotic in search of opportunity and the expectation that returns on accelerated development should be high. We have talked about the “Advantages […]
Conflict and markets
October, 2024
Conflict is an emotional topic. Every conflict in the world is personal to somebody. It goes without saying that we all wish for a world without conflict, but regrettably this has now become an entrenched risk which investment markets appear to take in their stride. As an illustration of this ability of markets to cope […]
When you should diversify (and when you shouldn’t)
September, 2024
Diversification is vital when aiming to manage investment risk. Diversifying asset classes reduces volatility of returns (and returns themselves) whilst diversifying holdings reduces the chances of loss (and gain!). We have been questioned many times regarding the relatively concentrated nature of our strategies (for those who don’t know, we limit the numbers of holdings in […]