Perspectives
Nominal V. Real Returns
October, 2017
Whilst most investors await a rise in the UK interest rate later this year, we continue to be amazed by the focus on this nominal rate in an environment where inflation is running at over 3% as we cannot see its relevance to an investor. Since the late 1970s we have become accustomed to nominal […]
Goodbye to Wolfgang Schauble
October, 2017
Wolfgang Schauble, the current German Finance Minister, will shortly leave his post to take up his new role of speaker of the German Bundestag. Although he is probably unknown to the average man in the street, he has been possibly the most influential and damaging politician in Europe throughout the course of the Eurozone crisis. […]
Focus on cashflows rather than politics
October, 2017
How should we quantify risk when investing; is it the risk of losing money? Or, maybe the risk of not achieving our financial goals? Or the risk of preserving our buying power over the longer term in the case of a pension? The reality is that risk exists only in the future and it is […]
Focus on cashflows rather than politics
October, 2017
How should we quantify risk when investing; is it the risk of losing money? Or, maybe the risk of not achieving our financial goals? Or the risk of preserving our buying power over the longer term in the case of a pension? The reality is that risk exists only in the future and it is […]
Overdiversification is a Risk
September, 2017
Imagine you are a school teacher. You are looking for a new job and there are two alternatives. The first involves a small school – there are 20 pupils. It isn’t an easy job. You will be responsible for keeping a very close eye on the children, analysing their every move every day and hoping […]
Cyclical upswing, but what of the structural headwinds?
September, 2017
We held our quarterly investment conference this week where we discuss some of the key economic issues that we believe are driving global markets. The baseline is reasonably positive in that momentum in the world economy appears to be, if anything, strengthening. Lead indicators, business surveys and institutional research all point to continued expansion. At […]
Where’s the wage growth?
September, 2017
We are in the middle of preparing and reviewing the data for our quarterly investment conference. Everyone has an opinion but it is always worth examining the raw economic information coming out of Central Banks, Government statistics organisations and other global institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF. Equally, it is always interesting […]
Interest rate levels affect equity levels
September, 2017
Equity valuations are impacted by many factors: earnings, cashflows and market sentiment to name but a few. Interest rates play in important part in current prevailing equity valuations and we believe investors should be focussed on these at present because if low interest rates drive higher current equity valuations, then higher interest rates will inevitably […]
Home from the Holidays
September, 2017
As Britain returns from the holiday break this year, followed inevitably by the sound of credit card bills falling onto the doormat, there may be a greater feeling of dread than usual. If you have travelled to the US or Europe, you will be acutely aware that not only has the “pound in your pocket” […]
Hedging comes at a cost
August, 2017
Since being re-elected in December 2012, Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, has presided over an economic policy aimed at restoring growth to help the country repay its large government debts that have accumulated over recent decades. This policy has become known as Abenomics as it has focused on three distinct ‘arrows’: monetary reflation, fiscal […]