Perspectives
Can Europe Rise to the Challenge Posed by Donald Trump’s America?
June, 2025
We are all familiar with the law of unintended consequences or as Helmut von Moltke put it in a sadly topical context, “no plan survives contact with the enemy.” Donald Trump has breezed through so many norms, protocols, laws and precedents in the course of his still brief (barely 6 months?) second tenure of the […]
Ignorance versus knowing everything
June, 2025
Overconfidence is a common human trait where individuals overestimate their knowledge, abilities, or control over situations, often believing they are better or more skilled than they truly are. This bias can manifest as overestimating one’s performance, believing oneself superior to others, or expressing unwarranted certainty in one’s beliefs. Such miscalibration leads to decision-making errors, risky […]
US Treasuries
June, 2025
Recent headlines about a possible US government debt default are dramatic, but a default—while unlikely—cannot be ruled out. Given its far-reaching consequences, we think it’s useful to clarify the arguments and implications for clients. The current focus on default risk stems from the Mar-a-Lago Accord, a proposed economic strategy developed during Donald Trump’s second term. […]
Demographics
June, 2025
Demographics are deemed to be a material driver of investment returns. The argument goes that the bigger the proportion of the population that is of a working age, the greater the economic value creation and the lower the drain on the public purse. These working people then begin to save, providing a marginal buyer to […]
In the UK, inflation is our enemy
May, 2025
Regular readers of Tacit Thoughts will know that we have an almost obsessive focus on real returns: returns after adjusting for inflation. The reason for this is that our clients live in the real world where maintaining (or growing) their purchasing power is most important over any meaningful time frame. Something that astounds us is […]
Why let the facts get in the way of a good story?
May, 2025
Storytelling is deeply ingrained in financial markets because it helps investors make sense of complex, uncertain, and fast-moving environments. Markets are inherently chaotic and unpredictable, and raw data alone can be overwhelming or confusing to most. Narratives simplify this complexity by framing information in a coherent, cause-and-effect story that feels easier to understand and act […]
Beware what you can’t know
May, 2025
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has gone from a concept in most people’s minds to a reality in just over a year. This new technology has very quickly become seamlessly embedded into our everyday lives. If you use WhatsApp you may have noticed the new ‘Meta AI’ functionality over the past month for example, powered by the […]
The lure of big numbers
May, 2025
Investors are often drawn to large nominal returns. The headline figures that are commonly used in marketing and reporting show the total percentage gain on an investment before accounting for inflation, taxes, and fees because these numbers are more visible, easier to understand. Nominal returns provide a straightforward snapshot of performance, making them a […]
The Importance of Investment Composure
April, 2025
Every market downturn is different but its impact on our behaviour is consistent. Investment composure is one way in which an investor’s behaviour can be measured and forms part of our risk profiling exercise when any prospective client engages with Tacit. Market ups and downs are a normal part of investing. It’s natural to feel […]