Perspectives
The long term is difficult to predict
October, 2024
This week Goldman Sachs published some research which concluded that they expect US equity returns to be lower than the rest of the world over the coming decade. This would be a reversal of the past decade which has seen US equities outperform almost all other markets by a substantial margin. The basic rationale for […]
A timely reminder that a good company is not always a good investment
October, 2024
Artificial intelligence and technology companies are all the rage at present. General perception is that the share price of any business that is involved in supplying or providing services in the artificial intelligence sector will have gone up over the last few years. This lazy view is actually not correct. This week, investors were reminded […]
Travels with a Donkey
October, 2024
Whilst most investors and market participants are focussed on the forthcoming US Presidential election, a recent visit to Morocco prompted us to think about “Frontier” markets. Investors have often been drawn to the exotic in search of opportunity and the expectation that returns on accelerated development should be high. We have talked about the “Advantages […]
Conflict and markets
October, 2024
Conflict is an emotional topic. Every conflict in the world is personal to somebody. It goes without saying that we all wish for a world without conflict, but regrettably this has now become an entrenched risk which investment markets appear to take in their stride. As an illustration of this ability of markets to cope […]
When you should diversify (and when you shouldn’t)
September, 2024
Diversification is vital when aiming to manage investment risk. Diversifying asset classes reduces volatility of returns (and returns themselves) whilst diversifying holdings reduces the chances of loss (and gain!). We have been questioned many times regarding the relatively concentrated nature of our strategies (for those who don’t know, we limit the numbers of holdings in […]
Into an Easing Cycle
September, 2024
This week the Federal Reserve followed the European Central Bank and Bank of England in lowering its main rate of interest from 5.25% to 4.75%. These are the first cuts in interest rates since March 2020 and they effectively announce to the world that the battle with pandemic related supply-side price rises has been won, […]
The True Value of Gold
September, 2024
We have had many questions about gold over the past few months and thought it would be useful to explain in a little more detail our thinking on the asset and our thoughts on its role in a portfolio moving forward. The allure of gold is understandable albeit slightly flawed. Gold is a stable element […]
Crowded trades and unintended consequences
August, 2024
Our approach to investment is based on two simple pillars: buy growing cash flows at reasonable prices diversify by buying assets that become more valuable when investors get nervous We cannot forecast how and when market volatility will occur, however we can ensure that we are not allocated to crowded trades which do not meet […]
I’m Afraid There’s No Money!
August, 2024
The recent dour fiscal reports from the Treasury under the new stewardship of Rachel Reeves recall what is said to be the most expensive joke in British political history. In 2010, Liam Byrne (then Chief Secretary to the Treasury) left a note to Philip Hammond, the incoming Chancellor to effect that “I’m afraid there’s no […]