Perspectives
Something New
June, 2020
As the search for a cure and vaccine continues, a simple and uncelebrated method of reducing transmission of the virus has revealed itself – the humble face mask. Face masks can be thought of as a very primitive vaccine. The analogy is quite crude since masks do not provide the user with immunity. However, immunity […]
Moral Hazard
June, 2020
Moral hazard is a concept that does not get talked about a lot in day to day investment commentaries but at Tacit we believe it is something that poses significant risks and therefore should be considered carefully. In economics, moral hazard occurs when an entity has an incentive to increase its exposure to risk because […]
What is Sustainability, Really?
May, 2020
As the pandemic and the secondary effects of the lockdowns have unfolded, global equity markets have declined. Some ESG (Environmental Social Governance) funds have actually had very muted declines, relatively speaking. This is mainly because they have avoided most of the hardest hit sectors of the economy because of their environmental impact – the energy […]
Kitchen Sinking
May, 2020
The major consequence of the global financial crisis in 2008 was a decade of “austerity” where the excesses of global finance in the run up to the crisis were paid for in a decade of cuts to public budgets. In the famous formulation of the time, “profits were privatised but losses were socialised.” Having lived […]
Client Update Letter
May, 2020
18 May 2020 The team at Tacit felt that the current environment warranted a more in-depth assessment of the investment outlook, focused on recent events and, more importantly, on the changed investment landscape we foresee following the health-driven emergency that has dominated the first quarter of 2020. Firstly, we hope you, and your family, are […]
The Value of Growth
May, 2020
A lot of investors are familiar with Benjamin Graham – the father of security analysis and Warren Buffett’s mentor and first employer. Benjamin Graham popularised a style of investing called value investing. Its basic premise is that if you buy an asset at a discount to a conservative estimate of its value, you are likely […]
The Unholy Trinity
May, 2020
A fire requires three ingredients to be self-sustaining: fuel, a source of oxidation (oxygen in the air) and a source of ignition. This is known as the fire triangle. A fire can be prevented by removing any of these ingredients. This principle of elimination or avoidance of harm is used by fire fighters when fighting […]
The Cure?
May, 2020
Recently, there has been conflicting news of a potential cure for Covid-19 doing the rounds in the press. We thought it would be useful at this point to separate the wheat from the chaff and see what all of this really means. There have been three substantive clinical trials of the drug called Remdesivir manufactured […]
Estimating Fair Value
April, 2020
We are often reminded that financial markets can be volatile and erratic, and none more so at present than the oil market which briefly traded below zero last week. Imagine turning up at your local garage and being paid by the garage to fill up and drive on. Oil is by no means the only […]
Why the world could end but probably won’t
April, 2020
Stepping back from the frustrations of lockdowns, the growing toll of human tragedy, and the unhelpful daily twitter feed of President Trump, are investment markets actually behaving rationally? The current volatility in equity markets is driven by a change in future earnings estimates of the companies that make them up. As the price you pay […]